On Tuesday, May 3, former Texas senator Ted Cruz dropped out of the presidential race. This is a huge deal for America because this move has established a clear path for Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination. Speaker Paul Ryan has made it clear that he will not interfere with who the GOP collectively nominates despite Trump being the anti-establishment candidate and the only candidate left in the race.
What does this mean for Hillary Clinton and the GOP as a whole? Since Clinton has a clear and almost certain lead on Bernie Sanders, it is fair to assume that Clinton and Trump will be the only ones competing over the summer. It is expected that Trump will face the media with constant bad news and facts about Clinton in order to make her look bad. However, it will be necessary that Trump establishes policies and a positive platform for himself. He will have a hard time getting elected if he does not form policies by fall. There is only so much Trump will be able to attack Clinton on; they both have changed their views in the past two decades. They have both failed at certain aspects of their jobs, and the media has shed a lot of light on the negative things they are each responsible for.
The GOP is currently in a tight spot; Cruz’s dropout has a lot of party-loyal Republicans aggravated with their party. People have claimed that they will leave the GOP since it is moving in a far right position on the political spectrum. On the flipside, party-loyal Democrats are not necessarily thrilled with Sanders’s campaign. He has continued to bash the party and make it look bad for not standing true to democratic principles; therefore, the Democratic Party is also in a tight space. Anti-establishment and non politician platforms for elections are growing increasingly, bashing on Washington’s inability to accomplish things, agree on issues, and establish a fair tax plan. Despite Cruz also being relatively far from the establishment, people are still not convinced that a full anti-establishment candidate will get the job done, Republican or Democrat.
What to expect come the General Election
With the way things are laying out, expect Sanders to drop out over the summer and to see heated debates between Trump and Clinton. Since Bill Clinton has been more active and voicing his thoughts on Hillary’s platform, expect Bill to make spontaneous media appearances. Whether Trump wins or loses, his messages will resonate with the GOP, and neoconservatives, people with new conservative views that push the Republican Party in a different direction from the multitude of the party’s supporters, will continue to push Republican values in a direction that pressures Washington politicians to work in their favor. The Democratic Party appears to be mocking the GOP in the pressure they place on Washington politicians as well.
How Cruz’s dropout is a bigger deal than what has been evaluated
There is no longer a solid connection between the presidential race and Washington since Cruz and Kasich were the last people in the race closest to the establishment. The GOP has expressed animosity towards Trump, and even though the House of Representatives has agreed to deal with the potential nomination, they are not thrilled about it mainly because they feel Trump will do as he pleases, especially with the military, without House approval or influence.
In comparison between Trump and Clinton, they will both have to defend themselves on many things. Trump will need to defend his lack of a Vice President, defend his wife, Melania Trump, and how his family will fit in the White House. Melania is from Yugoslavia, and she has worked as a nude model, so people are beginning to question how her values will influence what happens in the White House. Clinton will need to continue to defend herself on Benghazi and her encrypted and decrypted emails. She will also be under fire from the media because media sources will be weighing the outcomes of having Bill back in the White House.
A Clinton nomination would greatly impact the Democratic Party as a whole. Far-left liberal viewpoints have gained traction among young voters in the party. The Democratic Party has seemed to drift to the right, especially in the Executive Branch. President Barack Obama has chosen moderate Republican Merrick Garland as his nomination for Scalia’s Supreme Court seat in order to come to an agreement with Congress, but he is facing serious opposition from the Republican congress. “My view is we should not be confirming somebody during this presidential election cycle. I mean, we’re already well into the presidential campaign, it’s the last year of the Obama presidency,” explained U.S. Senator Rob Portman. The GOP is clearly betting on a more conservative president to appoint someone more conservative for the position since the next Justice spot will determine the majority party of the Supreme Court.
What will happen to the Executive Branch?
After the night of the General Election, the entire Executive Branch could potentially flip in partisan majority. If Sanders wins, he will appoint a liberal person to the Supreme Court, and Congress will have no choice because Sanders will not budge unlike Obama or potentially Clinton. Congress believes if they wait until the next president is elected, they will be able to sway whoever wins into appointing a justice who will work in favor of conservatives. The likelihood of this happening is relatively high since Sanders has a low chance at winning, Clinton has proven to be easily influenced, and Trump is very conservative. To summarize the outcomes, the Supreme Court could either go liberal or conservative along with the presidential position. This will shape the economy for at least the next four years because a lot of the debates in the court are between partisan issues such as Obamacare, tax cuts, abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and foreign policies. A lot is at stake, and more than some people are thinking about. Going further, history will be made on the presidential position one way or another. Sanders would be the oldest ever elected, Trump would be the first non politician, and Clinton would be the first woman. As people naturally feel very strongly about who they want in office, it should be an interesting outcome nonetheless.